Ok folks, so tomorrow is when we'll have an answer. Will it be McCain or Obama? I don't know about you, but for this history teacher, I'm ready for a definitive answer so that I can move on with analyzing and predicting the first 100 days of the new presidency. So what are the predictions looking like? Well, if you are to look at the four major polls, all point to an Obama victory (Gallup has Obama up by 13%, Rasmussen by 6%, Washington Post by 11%, and Ipsos by 5%). Three comments on that: 1) sometimes polling and voting have two different sets of results, 2) the popular vote doesn't win you the election, and that's what these polls are based, and 3) Senator McCain is no stranger to the idea of a big, seemingly impossible comeback. All things considered, therefore, this race is not sealed up. However, in looking at the electoral map (which DOES matter), Senator McCain is fighting an uphill battle at the moment. He is going to pull off some incredible surprise victories in a few states if he is going to win. Remember: the magic number is 270 votes to win this thing. Again, when looking at the state-by-state breakdown, all indications are pointing to an Obama victory. There are several interactive electoral maps you can look at online, and if you're anything like me, you can play around with various scenarios by giving McCain and Obama wins in certain states to see what it will take for either candidate to claim victory. I especially like the map on National Public Radio's website because not only can you play around with states, but you can also put your cursor over each state to see how far ahead either candidate is in each state. Right now NPR has Obama winning 291 to 247 over McCain. You can look at the map and play with it by clicking here. Ken Rudin, NPR's political expert predicts Obama in his final prediction. You can read his analysis of the race by clicking here. As far as the BBC (the most trustworthy news source in the English language) is concerned, they are predicting an even bigger Obama win. Right now they have the breakdown as 311 votes for Obama, 160 for McCain, with 67 tossup votes still up for grabs. Interestingly, BBC is boldly giving Ohio to Obama, and Ohio is an incredibly tight race, and Republicans have never won the White House without winning Ohio. You can look at that map, by clicking here. For my money, the best election coverage available is from the BBC, and you can look at full coverage of the US Elections 2008 on their special page by clicking here. What are the other major news sources saying? Well, next to NPR and BBC, I suppose the next most objective news source would be CNN, and their election coverage has actually been pretty impressive this year. I have especially enjoyed Anderson Cooper's always objective and responsible journalism on AC360. What are CNN polls saying? Again, an Obama victory is predicted. Right now they have Obama with 291 votes, McCain with 157, and 90 toss-up votes still up for grabs (but again, even if McCain won all 90 toss-ups, he still doesn't win). Essentially, what McCain is going to have to do is pull off a few surprise wins in a few states that Obama has a comfortable lead in to even make it interesting tomorrow. CNN has another analysis page that is pretty fun to read through, and you can look at it too by clicking here. The next best and responsible news source here in the United States would be ABC News, and currently, again they (in the ABC News/Washington Post poll) have an Obama win predicted with Obama taking 349 votes and McCain 189. You can look at their coverage by clicking here. I don't have much use for the rest of the news sources out there in this country. I find them to oftentimes be agenda-driven and irresponsible in their coverage (especially MSNBC and Fox News, which, although on opposite ends of the political spectrum, both have proven to be irresponsible, agenda-driven, and just plain poor in their coverage of the daily news), but for whatever it's worth, here's what the rest are saying: CBS News is playing it cool and has Obama leading 259 to 163 with 116 toss-up votes up for grabs (click here to see that one). MSNBC has Obama winning with at least 286 votes to McCain's 157, with 95 toss-up votes for grabs (click here to see that one). Finally, Fox News also is predicting an Obama victory (if Fox is saying Obama wins, the McCain camp has to be nervous) with Obama taking at least 286 votes, McCain 163, and 89 votes still up for grabs (click here to look at that one). So that's it folks, that's about the most exhaustive predictions coverage you'll get on any teacher's blog. So now all we can do is sit and watch the votes come in. Here are three states to keep your eye on around 8pm tomorrow evening: Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida. If Obama wins these three states (and we should know this before 9pm) game over, Obama takes the election. If Obama does well on the east coast and Great Lakes region, it's an Obama win because McCain will clean up in the heartland, but Obama will sweep the west coast giving him a decisive victory by around midnight eastern time. Does sectionalism still exist in this country? Looking at the maps, regionally we are still very much a divided people sadly. If you want to discuss anything else regarding the election here, feel free. However, please keep the conversation to general predictions, POLICY discussion (for a handy guide to where both candidates actually stand on actual ISSUES, the BBC has a nice guide that you can read by clicking here), and please folks, I'm begging you, please make sure that your comments are accurate and well-thought out. PLEASE NO MUD-SLINGING OR DEFAMATION OF CHARACTER of either candidate. I've heard enough of that from both sides, and I've seriously had enough. If you've "heard" something about either candidate, please make sure you check the facts before posting here. The easiest way to do so is to click on the link here for factcheck.org. This is a bi-partisan non-profit website that is concerned with one thing and one thing only: THE TRUTH! Hmm... my kind of people. Their archives are full of information to clear up things we've "heard." Please follow the rules I'm laying out on this post folks because I am beyond wanting to clear up half-truths, misconceptions, and flat-out false statements as I had to do on my last post on the subject. I was reluctant to make this post, but I've been asked by several to put up an election day post for you all to discuss it, so due to popular demand, here it is. Please be responsible with it. Ok folks, I'll see you on Wednesday, hopefully with a clear announcement of who our next president is.
Monday, November 3, 2008
Less Than 24 Hours Until the First Polls Close
Ok folks, so tomorrow is when we'll have an answer. Will it be McCain or Obama? I don't know about you, but for this history teacher, I'm ready for a definitive answer so that I can move on with analyzing and predicting the first 100 days of the new presidency. So what are the predictions looking like? Well, if you are to look at the four major polls, all point to an Obama victory (Gallup has Obama up by 13%, Rasmussen by 6%, Washington Post by 11%, and Ipsos by 5%). Three comments on that: 1) sometimes polling and voting have two different sets of results, 2) the popular vote doesn't win you the election, and that's what these polls are based, and 3) Senator McCain is no stranger to the idea of a big, seemingly impossible comeback. All things considered, therefore, this race is not sealed up. However, in looking at the electoral map (which DOES matter), Senator McCain is fighting an uphill battle at the moment. He is going to pull off some incredible surprise victories in a few states if he is going to win. Remember: the magic number is 270 votes to win this thing. Again, when looking at the state-by-state breakdown, all indications are pointing to an Obama victory. There are several interactive electoral maps you can look at online, and if you're anything like me, you can play around with various scenarios by giving McCain and Obama wins in certain states to see what it will take for either candidate to claim victory. I especially like the map on National Public Radio's website because not only can you play around with states, but you can also put your cursor over each state to see how far ahead either candidate is in each state. Right now NPR has Obama winning 291 to 247 over McCain. You can look at the map and play with it by clicking here. Ken Rudin, NPR's political expert predicts Obama in his final prediction. You can read his analysis of the race by clicking here. As far as the BBC (the most trustworthy news source in the English language) is concerned, they are predicting an even bigger Obama win. Right now they have the breakdown as 311 votes for Obama, 160 for McCain, with 67 tossup votes still up for grabs. Interestingly, BBC is boldly giving Ohio to Obama, and Ohio is an incredibly tight race, and Republicans have never won the White House without winning Ohio. You can look at that map, by clicking here. For my money, the best election coverage available is from the BBC, and you can look at full coverage of the US Elections 2008 on their special page by clicking here. What are the other major news sources saying? Well, next to NPR and BBC, I suppose the next most objective news source would be CNN, and their election coverage has actually been pretty impressive this year. I have especially enjoyed Anderson Cooper's always objective and responsible journalism on AC360. What are CNN polls saying? Again, an Obama victory is predicted. Right now they have Obama with 291 votes, McCain with 157, and 90 toss-up votes still up for grabs (but again, even if McCain won all 90 toss-ups, he still doesn't win). Essentially, what McCain is going to have to do is pull off a few surprise wins in a few states that Obama has a comfortable lead in to even make it interesting tomorrow. CNN has another analysis page that is pretty fun to read through, and you can look at it too by clicking here. The next best and responsible news source here in the United States would be ABC News, and currently, again they (in the ABC News/Washington Post poll) have an Obama win predicted with Obama taking 349 votes and McCain 189. You can look at their coverage by clicking here. I don't have much use for the rest of the news sources out there in this country. I find them to oftentimes be agenda-driven and irresponsible in their coverage (especially MSNBC and Fox News, which, although on opposite ends of the political spectrum, both have proven to be irresponsible, agenda-driven, and just plain poor in their coverage of the daily news), but for whatever it's worth, here's what the rest are saying: CBS News is playing it cool and has Obama leading 259 to 163 with 116 toss-up votes up for grabs (click here to see that one). MSNBC has Obama winning with at least 286 votes to McCain's 157, with 95 toss-up votes for grabs (click here to see that one). Finally, Fox News also is predicting an Obama victory (if Fox is saying Obama wins, the McCain camp has to be nervous) with Obama taking at least 286 votes, McCain 163, and 89 votes still up for grabs (click here to look at that one). So that's it folks, that's about the most exhaustive predictions coverage you'll get on any teacher's blog. So now all we can do is sit and watch the votes come in. Here are three states to keep your eye on around 8pm tomorrow evening: Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida. If Obama wins these three states (and we should know this before 9pm) game over, Obama takes the election. If Obama does well on the east coast and Great Lakes region, it's an Obama win because McCain will clean up in the heartland, but Obama will sweep the west coast giving him a decisive victory by around midnight eastern time. Does sectionalism still exist in this country? Looking at the maps, regionally we are still very much a divided people sadly. If you want to discuss anything else regarding the election here, feel free. However, please keep the conversation to general predictions, POLICY discussion (for a handy guide to where both candidates actually stand on actual ISSUES, the BBC has a nice guide that you can read by clicking here), and please folks, I'm begging you, please make sure that your comments are accurate and well-thought out. PLEASE NO MUD-SLINGING OR DEFAMATION OF CHARACTER of either candidate. I've heard enough of that from both sides, and I've seriously had enough. If you've "heard" something about either candidate, please make sure you check the facts before posting here. The easiest way to do so is to click on the link here for factcheck.org. This is a bi-partisan non-profit website that is concerned with one thing and one thing only: THE TRUTH! Hmm... my kind of people. Their archives are full of information to clear up things we've "heard." Please follow the rules I'm laying out on this post folks because I am beyond wanting to clear up half-truths, misconceptions, and flat-out false statements as I had to do on my last post on the subject. I was reluctant to make this post, but I've been asked by several to put up an election day post for you all to discuss it, so due to popular demand, here it is. Please be responsible with it. Ok folks, I'll see you on Wednesday, hopefully with a clear announcement of who our next president is.
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26 comments:
super excited to hear the answer....staying uo all night just to hear who the new president will be!!!!!!!!! Cant Wait!!!!!!!!
I can't wait to see who the president is going to be after listening to all of the debate for several months now. It will be interesting to see who will win, however, I do think that Obama is going to.
This should be interesting....
I'm really anxious, not excited, but anxious to see who will win. I hope it'll be McCain, mainly because I know that terrorist groups will try and test Obama as much as possible if he wins. I think McCain also has more experience that'll help him in the long run. I have this feelin that Obama will win, but hey as you said Mr. Prill, it's electoral votes not percentage. All of the polls are leaning fairly far left right now, but I heard that those are always leaning more towards the left anyway. I'll be happy when this is all over and done with though because I'm tired of seeing those commercials about the nominees on tv and the ones about Saxby Chambliss. It'll be a close race. I just hope the country knows WHY they voted for whoever they did. A lot of people don't know the real stories behind the campaigns and what they're for and against.
yes! it's almost over. i cannot wait to find out who our next president will be. the only thing that is really bothering me is the fact that some people are only voting based on looks and the media. Ah society these days.
these days and throughout all of history, especially since the invention of the television.
I don't know if Prill told us this, but I heard a bit from the Howard Stern show about a guy going into Harlem and asking people whether they support Obama and then after they said yes he would give examples of McCain's policies and whether or not they agreed with them, all of the people in the audio clip agreed with every single policy the guy mentioned even when they were asked about Sarah Palin being Obama's VP. This just shows how people are willing to devoutly follow someone without any knowledge of that person's ideals or beliefs
Found a link to the clip
http://blogs4mccain.com/2008/10/14/howard-stern-harlem-voters/
i agree, it reflects a rather pathetic state of affairs. but there has to be better sources of election coverage than howard stern! what ever happened to good old fashioned C-SPAN???
The thing that angers me with the polls is that the media begins to tally the East coast's votes at 7 o' clock before the central and pacific time zones are even finished voting. Actually this doesn't apply to me because I am not voting, and because I live on the East coast, but for the other time zones, the election could be unanimously won either way before they even get to vote. That would make me mad. What would be the point of even voting?
I'm really glad that I'm part of this society while this election is going on ;) I really can't wait until I hear the name of our new president! SO excited.
PRILLLLLL... I'm so nervoussss. Gah. Idk what to do. I NEED a definite answer or i wont be able to sleep tonite. ahhhh.
wow im sooo exited to hear who will win!!!!
Wow! totally helpful! now i'm having this great political discussion with my mom...woot! I am so nervous for tonight!! I think i am going to just stay up late and see who wins... I guess this is all most poeple in the U.S. are thinking about right now...
I hate that so many people have not even researched the candidates and know what is really going on!!! My sister i sat college and was asking around about who had voted, etc. and she said that one girl said she was just going to shut her eyes and pick one because she didn't know who she wanted. ! What crap! Don't vote then!! My sister yelled at her and began informing people.
!!
i cant wait to see who wins the electio i was listening to the radio and they say obama is in the lead!!!!!! but that doesnt mean anything
Are we going to find out today or tomorrow? Im really anxious to see what change there will be. So if California is 3 hours we will find out late tonight right? this is too nerve racking!
im really nervous about this election. i am gunna stay up all night to figure out who won. i really hope mccain wins but it aint lookin good
omg....163:81
wow... I'm getting more and mroe nervous. But there will be no immediate changes, right? The new pres. is still a senator until Jan.?
you can find out right now who wins the election mr. edwards: senator barack obama is your new president. the news networks can't officially call it, but i can, b/c if you know anything about current american politics, there is practically no way mccain win since he lost pennsylvania and ohio, and obama has won both. he doesn't even need florida at this point. mccain will clean up in the heartland, but with the exception of texas, these are mostly low population areas, and obama will take the west coast without a problem. so it's pretty much over, no need to stay up late. and yes miss gustufson, obama will remain a senator until january.
And thats the ballgame!
Well now that Ohio has been called Democratic, there is no way Mccain can win without stealing a California, Oregon, Washington, or Hawaii. None of which are likely to happen. So if the predictions hold out, Obama will be our next president. My guess is a score of 324 to Mccain's 214
Yep, Obama just won Ohio, so the game is up. So now we have a Democratic Senate, House, and Presidency. How adversely, if you see it as a bad thing, do you see this? Doesn't this override the system of checks and balances?
Prill!He's doing it! Foreign Diplomacy has a chance of being saved :)! Im so so very happy.
no it does not mr. dixon. the whole idea of checks and balances has been completely misrepresented in the past few weeks. when our founding fathers wrote the constitution that set up the system of checks and balances, the idea of political parties was never taken into consideration. the idea was for the legislative branch to check the power of the executive, and for the judicial branch (which has NO party affiliations) to put a check on the other two. i'm fairly confident that obama will erase the bush model of the executive branch and go back to the clinton style of governing. by this i mean that you can probably expect both democrats and republicans to be in obama's presidential cabinet. bill clinton had, for example, a republican (and a very good friend of john mccain's) william cohen as his secretary of defense. there are no rules that say a president can only choose advisors and cabinet members in his own party. in fact, a prudent president does not look at parties, and tries to find the best possible people to surround himself with regarless of party. clinton did this, and obama has already alluded to this being his plan too. for example, i would not be surprised to see colin powell (a republican) as obama's secretary of defense. interestingly he was bush's first secretary of state (that would be unprecidented i think). by the way my predictions have been pretty accurate across the board this year. anyone that's close to me can tell you i predicted the choice of sarah palin over the summer in june when nobody had even heard her name. i predicted biden very early too. but i digress. secondly, for there to be a non-filibuster democratic senate, they need 60 seats, and i'm calling that they fall one seat short with 59. third, this is certainly not unprecedented. between 2003-2007 we had a republican executive, senate, and house. and it has happened several times before. the flip side of looking at this is that when you have one party dominating the legislature and the opposing party in the presidency, they veto each other to death and nothing gets done (for example the clinton era post-1994 when the republican party took over the legislature with their "contract with america"). but yeah, we can all pretty much go to bed: obama already has 206 votes, THERE IS NO WAY HE LOSES CALIFORNIA, IT'S IMPOSSIBLE, so there's 55 to get him to 261, and there's no way he loses the state of washington either (so another 11 votes) so that gets obama to 272 and the win (and that's not even counting likely wins in colorado, oregon, and nevada, and the possibility of a florida or virginia win) so obama will be way over the required 270. tomorrow senator obama will be president-elect obama. a new chapter in american history begins... we'll just have to see how the critical first hundred days goes now starting in january. and if you know anything about joe biden, you know that he'll be keeping us entertained with gaff for the next four years.
on the senate race, i'm going to say now that the democrats have 58 or 59 seats at the end of the day. incidently georgia played a big role in this happening as jim martin was giving incumbent senator saxby chambliss a run for his money, but the republican chambliss will win this one. therefore those of you that were worried can breathe easier there folks, you won't be seeing a non-filibuster senate, the republicans will retain some degree of power. plus, to call senator joe lieberman a democrat at this point is a bit of a stretch, especially with his recent campaigning with senator mccain. watch him switch over to the republican caucus in january.
obama has just won officially. 47 year old barack obama is your new president. congratulations to both candidates for a thrilling past few months of heavy campaigning. and now history unfolds...
I've been watching BBC all night. As soon as Obama won over the key states with the most electoral votes, I knew he was going to be the next president. I also find it ironic that it was said 40 years ago that perhaps a "negro" would be president. At 11:00 the electoral votes was 286 to 141. I personally cannot say if this will better our country or worsen it. I will just have to wait and see how he carries out his term as president.
This is the moment we've all been waiting for. I cannot wait to see what happens next!
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